Monday, November 01, 2004

Groundswell

Anyone who lives by or has spent any significant amout of time by the seashore will know what I'm talking about.

Pulses of energy travel unseen through deep water. Whether generated by the interaction of the sea surface and the air or by seismic activity or from whatever source, these powerful pulses of energy slide silently and unmarked often for thousands of miles before anyone becomes aware of them.

It is only when geographic features, the continental shelf, an island or the gradually rising seafloor, interact with these pulses that evidence of their arrival shows clearly.

Think of voter sentiment as such a pulse and the election of 2004 as the seashore. Signs have been reported, unusually high early voting all across the United States electoral landscape, massive registration efforts more than adequately funded, huge numbers of volunteers from safe states canvassing door-to-door in swing states or manning phone bank for the first times in their lives, the unprecedented coordination of GOTV efforts among ACT, MoveOn, Emily's List, Unions and local activists and finally the energy, enthusiasm and determination of democratic voters worldwide to make change happen this year.

The potential is there. Bush could very well be washed from office by a purgative tsunami of an order of magnitude greater than the predictive power of pundits and entirely undetected by any polls.

Early signs of the effect will be apparent the evening of November 2.

Will it happen? No one can say with certainty. Could it happen? There is great potential straining to be released.

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

My prediction:

Not Even Close

Out on a limb:

Popular Vote:

Kerry 51.3%
Bush 46.9%
Other 1.8%

Electoral Vote:

Kerry 316
Bush 222
Other 0

Senate:

Democrats pick up 2 seats
(Lincoln Chaffee switches to independent within months of Kerry's swearing in also)

House:

Toughest Call!

In the surprise of the election, Kerry's coattails and a huge democratic turnout surge give dems back the house, albeit by a razor thin margin.


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