Tuesday, September 21, 2004

INFALLIBLE 2004 Presidential Election Predictor

Whichever candidate wins two out of three of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania will win the election.

I have been saying this for months now and many who read my posts already know that in addition to being exceedingly humble, handsome, intelligent and witty, I am very rarely wrong.

Zogby's latest battleground states poll has Kerry currently ahead in both Florida and Pennsylvania while Bush leads only in Ohio. Therefore, if the election were held today, Kerry would win. Unfortunately, the election is not being held today.

Poll enthusiasts will no doubt already be aware that Zogby is unmatched in accuracy in presidential polling in the latest two presidential election cycles (in 2000 he was tied with Harris). It is for that reason I have selected Zogby battleground states poll as the major (but not the only) data point for my INFALLIBLE election predictor.

Although the race is close nationally, generally within the margin of error of the individual national horse-race polls, there always exists the possibility of a "breakout" of one candidate or another. This hasn't happened yet. Both candidates have held the lead by varying margins this year only to see those margins collapse over time. Some may recall the wild swings in post-convention pollings in 2000. The little spoken truth is those wild swings result from pollsters' sampling (Rasmussen) and filtering (Gallup) methods much more than from the raw data (Here's looking at you, kid).

By most reliable measures at the present time, Bush holds a 3-5 point lead in the top-line number nationally while Kerry holds a slim and tenuous lead in the crucial battleground states. You may cherry pick the numbers from one poll or another to support almost any conclusion you care to present, but my predictor is INFALLIBLE.

The predictable major election event which could cause a "breakout" of one candidate or another from the tight race heretofore, is the debates. Nothwithstanding the foregoing, there are certain wildcards which may or may not change the election calculus: any major outside unforseen catastrophe or event, an October surprise, or health issues of either candidate.

My INFALLIBLE predictor will help you cut through the thicket to the chase when you are confronted with a dazzling array of inconsistent and unreliable poll results and the unrelenting spin of those results between now and November 2.

You may all now relax and just watch those three states.

And remember, it doesn't matter who wins the popular vote, the only thing that matters is who gets to 270 EVs.

What are you doing to help us get there?

Thank you for your attention.

You may move along now.

This post is over.

Nothing more to see.

In the event of any change you will be notified so please wait until I contact you and forgo your seemingly irresistable urge to contact me. I assure you the urge will fade over time.

Why are you still here?


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